Viewing archive of Monday, 23 February 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 FEB 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS OCCURRED. A WEAK TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP WAS DETECTED AT 23/0017UT. BRIGHT LOOP STRUCTURES WERE VISIBLE ABOVE OLD REGION 8156 (NOW A DAY BEYOND THE WEST LIMB) AROUND THE TIME OF THE SWEEP, MAKING IT THE LIKELY SOURCE. REGION 8158 (S18W82) DISPLAYED GRADUAL GROWTH AND PRODUCED A COUPLE SUBFLARES AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8164 (N18E14) EMERGED RAPIDLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN STABILIZED AS A SMALL B-TYPE. NEW REGION 8165 (N27E53) WAS ALSO NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. REGIONS 8158 AND 8164 MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECLINE TO MODERATE TO NORMAL LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 24 FEB to 26 FEB
Class M05%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 FEB 099
  Predicted   24 FEB-26 FEB  098/096/094
  90 Day Mean        23 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 FEB  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 FEB  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 FEB-26 FEB  010/010-012/015-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 FEB to 26 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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