Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 May 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 MAY 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGIONS 8210 (S17W34) AND 8214 (N27E07) HAVE EACH PRODUCED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS. NUMEROUS TYPE III RADIO BURSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. REGION 8210 HAS STABILIZED IN GROWTH AND HAS LESSENED IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY TO A BETA GAMMA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8214 HAS INCREASED IN AREA AND DOUBLED IN SPOT COUNT SINCE YESTERDAY BUT STILL HAS A SIMPLE (BETA) MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET. SOHO EIT IMAGES INDICATE NEW ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST LIMB THAT WILL SOON ROTATE INTO VIEW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE BASED ON THE COMBINED FLARE POTENTIAL IN REGIONS 8210 AND 8214.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE BEGAN ON 01 MAY AND IS ATTRIBUTED TO A SIGNIFICANT SOLAR EVENT ON 29 APRIL. SOLAR WIND DATA FROM THE NASA/ACE SPACECRAFT SHOWED THAT THE SOLAR MASS EJECTION PLASMA HAS NOW PASSED EARTH. A SMALL DISCONTINUITY IN THE SOLAR WIND PASSED ACE AT APPROXIMATELY 1700 UT. THIS DISCONTINUITY WAS SEEN AS A SUDDEN IMPULSE IN EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD AT ABOUT 1744 UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW BLAST OF SOLAR MATERIAL FROM THE MAJOR EVENT (X1 PROTON FLARE AND PARTIAL-HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION) OF 2 MAY. SHOCK ARRIVAL IS EXPECTED NEAR MID-DAY ON 04 MAY, AND MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD ENSUE ON 5 MAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ENERGETIC PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED TO END ON 04 MAY, BUT NEW SOLAR ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8210 WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER PROTON EVENT BECAUSE OF ITS FAVORABLE LONGITUDE ON THE SUN.
III. Event Probabilities 04 MAY to 06 MAY
Class M70%70%50%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 MAY 117
  Predicted   04 MAY-06 MAY  130/140/150
  90 Day Mean        03 MAY 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAY  041/056
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAY  045/055
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAY-06 MAY  020/043-050/055-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 MAY to 06 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%30%
Minor storm15%20%25%
Major-severe storm15%60%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%10%30%
Minor storm20%25%30%
Major-severe storm15%65%20%

All times in UTC

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