Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 May 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 MAY 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. 2 C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AT 30/2119Z AND 2340Z. 2 NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED. RGN 8031 (S21E33) WITH A "BXO-BETA" SPOT GROUP AND RGN 8030 (S19E60) WITH A "CSO-BETA" SPOT GROUP. RGN 8030 PRODUCED A C3/SF AT 30/2340Z. RGN 8227 IS SHOWING A 6-SPOT "CAO-BETA" SPOT GROUP AND VERY LITTLE REPORTED ACTIVITY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8227 AND 8230.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORMS LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV FLUX HAS SHOWN STEADY ENHANCEMENT DURING THE DAY AND HAS REMAINED AT NEAR THRESHOLD LEVELS SINCE APPROXIMATELY 30/1900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 31 MAY to 02 JUN
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 MAY 096
  Predicted   31 MAY-02 JUN  096/096/096
  90 Day Mean        30 MAY 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAY  021/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAY  022/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAY-02 JUN  015/015-010/013-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 MAY to 02 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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