Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 May 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 MAY 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AN UNCORRELATED C4 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 19/0802Z, WHICH WAS FOLLOWED BY A C3 ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ON LIMB FROM DEPARTING REGION 8218 (S18W90) AT 19/1605Z. TWO NEW SMALL B-TYPE REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 8223 (S16W53) AND 8224 (S35E01). THE LARGEST REGION CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8222 (N24W31), REMAINED STABLE AS A 17-SPOT 'CAI' BETA GROUP. A 17 DEGREE LONG BY 6 DEGREE WIDE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AT APPROXIMATELY 19/0953Z, WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY AN IMPORTANCE THREE TYPE II RADIO SWEEP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT VERY LOW TO LOW LEVELS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 20 MAY to 22 MAY
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 MAY 099
  Predicted   20 MAY-22 MAY  096/098/100
  90 Day Mean        19 MAY 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAY  008/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAY-22 MAY  005/008-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 MAY to 22 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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