Viewing archive of Monday, 15 June 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 JUN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE EXTENDING TO 0.31 SOLAR RADII OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHWEST LIMB AROUND 15/0600UT. A LONG-DURATION C1 X-RAY FLARE (15/0600-0937UT) AND CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) ACCOMPANIED THE ERUPTION. THE CME DID NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH-DIRECTED. A 36-DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT DURING 15/1314-1420UT. THIS LARGE, NORTH-SOUTH ALLIGNED FILAMENT WAS LAST SEEN CENTERED NEAR S62E17. NEW REGION 8249 (S27E74) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. REGIONS 8242 (S21E16), 8243 (N17E39), AND 8244 (N34E03) APPEAR CAPABLE OF ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. HOWEVER, ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FINAL TWO DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 16 JUN to 18 JUN
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 JUN 100
  Predicted   16 JUN-18 JUN  100/100/098
  90 Day Mean        15 JUN 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUN  015/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUN  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUN-18 JUN  005/010-010/012-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 JUN to 18 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%35%30%
Minor storm05%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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