Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 June 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 JUN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DECLINED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8242 (S21E28) PRODUCED ISOLATED B- AND C-CLASS SUBFLARES. NO REMARKABLE GROWTH OR DECAY OCCURRED IN ANY OF THE SPOTTED REGIONS. NEW REGION 8248 (N21E02) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. REGIONS 8242, 8243 (N18E51), AND 8247 (S23E17) MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8242 MAY ALSO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH 14/0300UT. FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING 14/0400 - 0600UT, THEN DECLINED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 15 JUN to 17 JUN
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 JUN 102
  Predicted   15 JUN-17 JUN  098/096/094
  90 Day Mean        14 JUN 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUN  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUN  015/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUN-17 JUN  005/010-005/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 JUN to 17 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%35%
Minor storm05%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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