Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 June 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 JUN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. ONLY SMALL B-CLASS ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8230 (S19E24) GREW AT A MODERATE PACE. NEW REGION 8232 (S19E74) ROTATED ONTO THE DISK. A MODERATE SIZE CLASS H SPOT WAS VISIBLE HERE AND TRAILER SPOTS MAY FOLLOW. THIS REGION IS THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8213 THAT PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES AND ONE M-CLASS FLARE LAST ROTATION. A LARGE PROMINENCE NEAR SW50 ERUPTED SHORTLY BEFORE 02/1500Z AND CREATED A LARGE AND DENSE CORONAL MASS EJECTION THAT APPEARED TO PROPAGATE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC PLANE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LOW. REGION 8230 SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THIS GROWTH PHASE. NEW REGION 8232 IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. LIMB PROXIMITY OF THIS REGION HINDERS ACCURATE ANALYSIS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN THE PERIOD AT HIGH LEVELS BUT DECREASED QUICKLY TO MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 03 JUN to 05 JUN
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 JUN 105
  Predicted   03 JUN-05 JUN  108/112/114
  90 Day Mean        02 JUN 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JUN  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUN  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUN-05 JUN  007/008-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 JUN to 05 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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