Viewing archive of Monday, 8 June 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 JUN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE DAY
WAS A C5/2N FROM REGION 8232 (S22W03) AT 08/1556UT. THIS EVENT WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR RADIO EMISSIONS AND A PARTIAL HALO CME MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST. THE FILAMENT THAT DISAPPEARED NEAR S18W18 BEFORE
07/0358UT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY REDEVELOPING. PORTIONS OF THE
FILAMENT NEAR N19W63 DISAPPEARED AFTER 07/1714UT. TWO BXO SPOT
GROUPS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, REGION 8238 (S19E06) IN THE TRAILING
SECTION OF REGION 8232 AND REGION 8239 (N21E59).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
ISOLATED C CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX EXCEEDED EVENT
THRESHOLDS AT 08/0836UT AND REMAINS ELEVATED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REACH ACTIVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE FIELD SHOULD
RETURN TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 09 JUN to 11 JUN
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 JUN 117 Predicted 09 JUN-11 JUN 117/117/116 90 Day Mean 08 JUN 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JUN 019/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUN 012/013 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUN-11 JUN 018/018-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 JUN to 11 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 06% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 06% | 06% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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