Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 June 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 JUN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ALL VISIBLE REGIONS APPEARED STABLE OR DECLINING. TWO SMALL SPOT GROUPS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, REGION 8240 (S24W44) AND REGION 8241 (S27E17). A PARTIAL HALO CME WAS OBSERVED AT 09/0627UT. MATERIAL WAS SEEN MOVING MOSTLY TO THE SW. THIS EVENT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH DISAPPEARING FILAMENTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN POLAR CROWN DURING THIS PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO VERY LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LEVELS MAY INCREASE ON 12 JUN WHEN OLD REGION 8226 (N12, L-210) IS DUE TO RETURN. REGION 8226 APPEARED TO BE GROWING AND PRODUCED MAJOR FLARES AS IT CROSSED WEST LIMB ON 29 MAY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON 12 JUN IN RESPONSE TO THE CME OBSERVED ON 8 JUN.
III. Event Probabilities 10 JUN to 12 JUN
Class M10%10%10%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 JUN 112
  Predicted   10 JUN-12 JUN  112/112/115
  90 Day Mean        09 JUN 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JUN  010/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUN  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUN-12 JUN  012/012-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 JUN to 12 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%20%
Minor storm15%05%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%20%30%
Minor storm15%05%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%

All times in UTC

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