Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 June 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 JUN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DROPPED TO VERY LOW LEVELS. ALL SPOTTED REGIONS APPEARED SIMPLE AND STABLE. A SINGLE B-CLASS SUBFLARE OCCURRED. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF SPACE-BASED CORONAL IMAGES REVEALED A PARTIAL-HALO CME FOLLOWED THE LONG-DURATION M1 X-RAY FLARE MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY'S REPORT. HOWEVER, THE CME DID NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH-DIRECTED. NEW REGION 8250 (S26E03) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. A GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S LONG-DURATION M1 X-RAY FLARE. THE ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AROUND 16/2300, PEAKED NEAR MID-PERIOD, THEN GRADUALLY DECLINED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO PRE-ENHANCEMENT LEVELS ON 18 JUNE.
III. Event Probabilities 18 JUN to 20 JUN
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 JUN 101
  Predicted   18 JUN-20 JUN  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        17 JUN 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUN  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUN  004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUN-20 JUN  012/012-015/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 JUN to 20 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%30%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%35%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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