Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 July 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 JUL 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8270 (S17E15)
PRODUCED AN M4/1B FLARE AT 14/1259Z. A 250 F.U. BURST AT 2695 MHZ
AND STRONG TYPE IV ACCOMPANIED THIS IMPULSIVE EVENT. A TYPE II BURST
MAY WELL HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS EVENT BUT WAS PREDOMINANTLY
OBSCURED BY THE TYPE IV. OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C2 FLARES OCCURRED
AT 14/0225Z AND 14/1903Z. AT 14/1100Z REGION 8269 (N18E17) PRODUCED
A C1/SF FLARE. REGION 8270 IS SMALL AND RELATIVELY STABLE IN AREA
BUT POSSESSES TIGHT MAGNETIC GRADIENTS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MAGNETOGRAPHS INDICATE A DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE CENTER OF THE
REGION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS
FROM REGION 8270 ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, ONLY SLIGHT MAGNETIC
SIMPLIFICATION IN THIS DIMINUTIVE REGION WOULD RESULT IN A LARGE
DECREASE OF THAT POSSIBILITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET FOR 15 JUL. PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON 15-16 JUL WITH PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS POSSIBLE
DURING THAT PERIOD DUE TO THE M4/1B FLARE MENTIONED ABOVE. THE LACK
OF MASS EJECTION INFORMATION FROM THE NOW CRIPPLED SOHO SATELLITE
LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
III. Event Probabilities 15 JUL to 17 JUL
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 JUL 103 Predicted 15 JUL-17 JUL 103/103/104 90 Day Mean 14 JUL 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUL 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUL 003/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUL-17 JUL 005/008-010/015-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 JUL to 17 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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