Viewing archive of Monday, 13 July 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 JUL 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. FREQUENT B-CLASS
ENHANCEMENTS OCCURRED, PRIMARILY FROM REGION 8270 (S21E27). THIS
REGION GREW SLOWLY DURING THE PERIOD AND EXHIBITED SLIGHTLY MIXED
POLARITIES. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO BURST OCCURRED
AT 13/0935Z. NO X-RAY BURST OR OTHER ACTIVITY OF NOTE COINCIDED WITH
THE TYPE II.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LOW.
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN REGION 8270 SHOULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. ISOLATED UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 14 JUL to 16 JUL
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 JUL 106 Predicted 14 JUL-16 JUL 107/108/110 90 Day Mean 13 JUL 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUL 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUL 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUL-16 JUL 005/008-005/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 JUL to 16 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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