Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 October 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 OCT 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8350 (N19E14)
PRODUCED THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY, SEVERAL SMALL B CLASS SUB-FLARES.
TWO REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, REGION 8352 (S12E30) AND REGION
8353 (N20E68), BOTH ARE SMALL SPOT GROUPS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET. A SMALL DISCONTINUITY (SHARP
CHANGE IN THE VELOCITY, DENSITY, AND MAGNETIC FIELD) WAS OBSERVED IN
THE SOLAR WIND AT ACE AROUND 1530UT. THIS RESULTED IN A SMALL
IMPULSE IN THE MAGNETIC FIELD AT 1630UT FOLLOWED BY MINOR CHANGES IN
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 07 OCT to 09 OCT
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 OCT 117 Predicted 07 OCT-09 OCT 119/120/120 90 Day Mean 06 OCT 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 OCT 002/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 OCT 003/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 OCT-09 OCT 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 OCT to 09 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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