Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 October 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 OCT 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8355 (S21E64)
DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AND PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY. SEVEN
C-CLASS AND TWO M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED. AN M1/1N OCCURRED AT
07/1247Z AND A M2/SF AT 07/1712Z. LIMB PROXIMITY IS PREVENTING AN
ACCURATE ANALYSIS BUT EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST A STRONG MAGNETIC
GRADIENT EXISTS AND A DELTA CONFIGURATION LIKELY EXIST IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THIS REGION. REGION 8350 (N19E02) CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE MINOR SUBFLARING BUT HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. TWO
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, REGION 8354 (S18E00), AND REGION 8355
(S21E64).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8355 IS STILL DEVELOPING. FURTHER M-CLASS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AND IF GROWTH CONTINUES AT ITS PRESENT RATE,
X-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. SOLAR
WIND SPEED HAS BEEN ON A STEADY INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY'S SHOCK WAS
OBSERVED AT L1 AT 06/1530Z. BZ FINALLY WENT SOUTHWARD AROUND 07/10Z
AND ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS FOLLOWED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE PRESENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.
III. Event Probabilities 08 OCT to 10 OCT
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 OCT 124 Predicted 08 OCT-10 OCT 130/135/138 90 Day Mean 07 OCT 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 OCT 002/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 OCT 020/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 OCT-10 OCT 015/015-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 OCT to 10 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 15% | 08% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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