Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 December 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 DEC 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. ALL REGIONS ON THE DISK ARE
EITHER AN ALPHA OR BETA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. TWO NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED. FIRST, 8408 (S19E28), WAS NUMBERED AND IS CURRENTLY
A BXO BETA SPOT GROUP. SECOND, REGION 8406 (S27E28) WAS DIVIDED
WITH 8406 REMAINING TO THE WEST AS AN HSX ALPHA SPOT GROUP, AND NEW
REGION 8409 (S29E43) AS A DSO BETA GROUP JUST BEHIND REGION 8406.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 11 DEC to 13 DEC
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 DEC 134 Predicted 11 DEC-13 DEC 132/128/122 90 Day Mean 10 DEC 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 DEC 004/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 DEC 004/004 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 DEC-13 DEC 010/012-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 DEC to 13 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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