Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 January 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 JAN 1999 -C0RR-

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW WITH ONLY TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY BURSTS OBSERVED. REGION 8426 (N14W24) APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED AS AN E-TYPE SPOT GROUP COVERING 160 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES LATE IN THE PERIOD. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. REGION 8426 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS IN HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. EFFECTS OF THE 3 JAN CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND THE ROTATION OF A LARGE SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE INTO A GEO-EFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION, WILL LIKELY CAUSE DISTURBED CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 07 JAN to 09 JAN
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 JAN  126
  Predicted   07 JAN-09 JAN  125/125/130
  90 Day Mean        06 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JAN  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JAN  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JAN-09 JAN  020/025-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 JAN to 09 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%35%35%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%40%40%
Minor storm30%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

All times in UTC

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