Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 JAN 1999 -C0RR-IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW WITH ONLY TWO OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY BURSTS OBSERVED. REGION 8426 (N14W24) APPEARS
TO HAVE STABILIZED AS AN E-TYPE SPOT GROUP COVERING 160 MILLIONTHS
OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES LATE IN
THE PERIOD. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8426 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS IN HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. EFFECTS OF THE 3 JAN CORONAL MASS
EJECTION AND THE ROTATION OF A LARGE SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE INTO A
GEO-EFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION, WILL LIKELY CAUSE DISTURBED
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 07 JAN to 09 JAN
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 JAN 126 Predicted 07 JAN-09 JAN 125/125/130 90 Day Mean 06 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JAN 006/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JAN 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JAN-09 JAN 020/025-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 JAN to 09 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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