Viewing archive of Monday, 28 December 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 DEC 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8419 (N26W40) PRODUCED AN M3/1B FLARE AT 0548UT. THIS GROUP HAS CONTINUED TO GROW RAPIDLY, NEARLY DOUBLING IN SIZE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE SPOTS ARE RATHER COMPACT AND SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. THE GROUP ALSO PRODUCED NUMEROUS C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD. REGION 8421 (N26E13) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 0521Z. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX, ALTHOUGH REGION 8421'S GROWTH RATE IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THAT OF REGION 8419.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM EITHER REGION 8419 OR 8421. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT FROM THESE REGIONS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TOMORROW AND QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 29 DEC to 31 DEC
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 DEC 184
  Predicted   29 DEC-31 DEC  185/180/175
  90 Day Mean        28 DEC 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 DEC  001/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 DEC  003/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 DEC-31 DEC  010/011-005/009-005/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 DEC to 31 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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