Viewing archive of Friday, 19 March 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 MAR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW. REGION 8485 (N22W78) HAS QUIETED DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. LIMB PROXIMITY INHIBITS A THOROUGH ANALYSIS, BUT IT APPEARS NOW AS A SIMPLE BETA GROUP IN DECAY. A PROMINENCE ERUPTED FROM THE SE LIMB AROUND 19/1620Z. SPACE-BASED IMAGERY INDICATE A CORONAL MASS EJECTION OCCURRED WITH THE ERUPTION, BUT MATERIAL DOES NOT APPEAR EARTHBOUND. FIVE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY - REGIONS 8492 (S27W46), 8493 (N19W22), 8494 (S22E15), 8495 (S21E61), AND 8496 (S11W03). REGION 8493 APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST ACTIVITY POTENTIAL OF THESE NEW REGIONS AS IT QUICKLY DEVELOPED INTO A C CLASS GROUP WITH OVER 20 SPOTS VISIBLE IN WHITE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS NOTED IN THE REMAINING REGIONS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FROM REGION 8485 AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE WEST LIMB, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS DIMINISHING AS THE REGION CONTINUES TO DECAY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 20 MAR to 22 MAR
Class M25%10%10%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 MAR 139
  Predicted   20 MAR-22 MAR  135/130/135
  90 Day Mean        19 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAR  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAR  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAR-22 MAR  008/008-008/007-008/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 MAR to 22 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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