Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 March 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 MAR 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C4/SF OCCURRED IN REGION 8493
(N20W36) AT 19/2330Z. ACTIVITY WAS AT VERY LOW LEVELS SINCE THEN
WITH MINOR PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND SURGES OCCURRING IN REGION 8493
AND 8496 (S09W18). REMAINING REGIONS HAVE SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGIONS 8493 AND 8496 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIODS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 21 MAR to 23 MAR
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 MAR 133 Predicted 21 MAR-23 MAR 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 20 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 MAR 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 MAR 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 MAR-23 MAR 008/007-010/005-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 MAR to 23 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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