Viewing archive of Friday, 18 June 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 JUN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY RETURNED TO LOW LEVELS. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C7/1N FROM REGION 8585 (N38E05). SEVERAL OTHER SMALL TO MIDDLE LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED. SOHO DATA INDICATED THAT MOST OF THESE EVENTS WERE FROM BEYOND THE NORTHWEST LIMB. HOWEVER, A MODERATE DURATION C5 X-RAY EVENT WAS OBSERVED AT 18/1657Z THAT CORRELATED WITH A FLARE BRIGHT MOUND NEAR NE25. LAST ROTATION, THIS AREA WAS COMPRISED OF SEVERAL ACTIVE REGIONS THAT PRODUCED FREQUENT C-CLASS AND OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. OTHER DISK REGIONS EXHIBITED ONLY MINOR EVOLUTION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE AREA ROTATING OVER THE NORTHEAST LIMB. A BETTER DETERMINATION OF THE FLARE POTENTIAL OF THIS AREA MUST AWAIT ITS APPEARANCE TO THE VISIBLE DISK.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 19 JUN to 21 JUN
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 JUN 147
  Predicted   19 JUN-21 JUN  150/153/156
  90 Day Mean        18 JUN 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JUN  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JUN  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JUN-21 JUN  007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 JUN to 21 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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