Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 June 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 JUN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. NEW REGION 8592 (N24E70) PRODUCED A LONG DURATION C5 AT 19/1355Z. A FAINT LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM AND CORONAL RAIN WERE OBSERVED AT NE18-22 AFTER THE X-RAY PEAK OF THE EVENT. THIS REGION APPEARED AS TWO MODERATE SIZE AND WIDELY SEPARATED SPOTS. THIS AREA MAY IN ACTUALITY CONTAIN TWO REGIONS. A FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR S45W51 ERUPTED BETWEEN 18/2352-19/0134Z. OTHER DISK REGIONS WERE PREDOMINANTLY STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8592 AND OTHER REGIONS DUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHEAST LIMB DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 20 JUN to 22 JUN
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 JUN 139
  Predicted   20 JUN-22 JUN  143/149/152
  90 Day Mean        19 JUN 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUN  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUN  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUN-22 JUN  007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 JUN to 22 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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