Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 June 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 JUN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN M1/2N FLARE AT 23/0709Z FROM REGION 8598 (N23E43). THIS FLARE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP AS WELL AS MULTI-FREQUENCY RADIO BURSTS. AT 23/0047Z A C7/1F FLARE OCCURRED, ORIGINATING FROM UNSPOTTED REGION 8583 (S11W90). THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX LEVELS HOVERED AT OR NEAR C LEVELS WITH FREQUENT SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8598, WHICH LIES WITHIN A LARGE CLUSTER OF REGIONS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE DISK, IS THE LARGEST AND MOST MAGNETICALLY COMPLICATED SPOT GROUP ON THE DISK. REGIONS 8601 (S15W36), 8602 (N19E75), 8603 (S16E75) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. GROWTH AND MAGNETIC INTERACTION WITHIN THE LARGE NORTHEAST CLUSTER OF REGIONS INCREASES THE CHANCES OF M-CLASS FLARES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. RECENT ANALYSIS OF SOHO IMAGERY INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A HALO CME ASSOCIATED WITH THE M1/1N FLARE ON 22/1829Z AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER GEOEFFECTIVE CME WITH TODAY'S M1 FLARE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS THE EFFECT OF THE OBSERVED CMES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE FIELD TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE FOR MINOR STORMING.
III. Event Probabilities 24 JUN to 26 JUN
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 JUN 168
  Predicted   24 JUN-26 JUN  175/180/180
  90 Day Mean        23 JUN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JUN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUN-26 JUN  005/005-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 JUN to 26 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%35%35%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%40%40%
Minor storm05%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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