Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 July 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 JUL 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WAS 8636
(N20E60). THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AS WELL
AS SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES. OPTICAL OBSERVATORIES REPORT NEAR
CONTINUOUS PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND POINT BRIGHTENING IN REGION 8636.
IT CURRENTLY HAS AN ESO, BETA-GAMMA SPOT CLASSIFICATION WITH 10
SPOTS. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8636 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENTS AT ANY TIME.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH POSSIBLE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON
THE SECOND DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 19 JUL to 21 JUL
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 JUL 138 Predicted 19 JUL-21 JUL 145/150/155 90 Day Mean 18 JUL 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JUL 003/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JUL 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JUL-21 JUL 005/007-010/010-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 JUL to 21 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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