Viewing archive of Monday, 19 July 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 JUL 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8636 (N20E52) PRODUCED
AN M5/2N FLARE AT 19/0846Z. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE WERE TYPE II
AND IV SWEEPS AS WELL AS A 140 SFU 10CM BURST. THE TYPE II SPEED
WAS ESTIMATED AT 500 KM/S. EARLIER AT 19/0215Z, REGION 8631
(N12W28) PRODUCED A C4 X-RAY EVENT ALSO WITH ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND
IV SWEEPS. NEW REGION 8639 (N38W14) WAS NUMBERED AND IS CURRENTLY A
BXO-BETA SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8636 DISPLAYS AN INCREASE IN MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY AND HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN M-CLASS X-RAY EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD BECOMING
QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A
FAINT FULL HALO CME OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO FROM REGION 8631 AT
19/0215Z.
III. Event Probabilities 20 JUL to 22 JUL
| Class M | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 JUL 141 Predicted 20 JUL-22 JUL 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 19 JUL 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUL 005/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUL 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUL-22 JUL 005/008-008/007-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 JUL to 22 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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