Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 August 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 AUG 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8656 (N14W86), 8657 (S31W35), AND 8662 (S16E07) ALL PRODUCED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS. REGION 8656 PRODUCED A C4/SF AT 10/0607Z AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MINOR SUBFLARES. REGION 8662, THE LARGEST AND MOST ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, PRODUCED A C4/1F AT 10/1624Z. MINOR GROWTH AND FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS WERE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION AND MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WAS EVIDENT IN A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. REGION 8662 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FROM REGION 8657.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS DETECTED AT L1 AROUND 10/1800Z. BZ TURNED SHARPLY SOUTHWARD CAUSING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT MID AND HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 11 AUG to 13 AUG
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 AUG 127
  Predicted   11 AUG-13 AUG  130/130/135
  90 Day Mean        10 AUG 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 AUG  010/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 AUG  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 AUG-13 AUG  008/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 AUG to 13 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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