Viewing archive of Monday, 6 September 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Sep 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 SEP 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. TODAY'S LARGEST FLARE
WAS A B6/SF AT 1213UT FROM REGION 8682 (N17W41). THIS REGION APPEARS
TO BE SLOWLY DECAYING. REGION 8687 (N10W60) APPEARED TO BE GROWING
SLOWLY TODAY BUT WAS QUIET AND STABLE. A NEW REGION 8690 (N13E73)
ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
ENERGETIC ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE ATTAINED HIGH FLUX
LEVELS TODAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 07 SEP to 09 SEP
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 SEP 119 Predicted 07 SEP-09 SEP 115/112/112 90 Day Mean 06 SEP 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 SEP 004/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 SEP 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 SEP-09 SEP 010/012-005/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 SEP to 09 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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