Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 March 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 23 MAR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO TWO M-CLASS EVENTS
DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY
FLARE AT 23/0030UT AND THE SECOND WAS AN M2/SF FROM REGION 8910 AT
23/1214UT. REGION 8910 IS THE LARGEST AND MOST ACTIVE REGION AND CAN
BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C AND POSSIBLE M-CLASS
EVENTS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGIONS 8913 (S06W50), 8915
(N23W14), AND 8917 (N19W47) ALL PRODUCED C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE
PERIOD. REGIONS 8916 (N13E01), 8918 (N13W66), AND 8921 (S15E37) WERE
ALSO ACTIVE, PRODUCING OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE REPORTING
PERIOD. FOUR NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED; 8924 (N13E70), 8925
(S17E76), 8926 (S10W18), AND 8927 (N18E01).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED
REMAINED HIGH, ALTHOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE DURING THE PERIOD,
FROM 600 TO 500 KM/S. PRESUMABLY RELATED TO A WELL POSITIONED
CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER LATITUDES DURING THE SECOND DAY OF THE
PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 24 MAR to 26 MAR
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 MAR 224 Predicted 24 MAR-26 MAR 230/240/245 90 Day Mean 23 MAR 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAR 008/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAR 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAR-26 MAR 015/025-020/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 MAR to 26 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 70% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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