Viewing archive of Friday, 7 April 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 07 APR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. ONLY SMALL C FLARES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF REGION 8948 (S14E28) ADDING COMPLEXITY TO THIS REGION (A DELTA MAG CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED). TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, REGION 8951 (N11E74) AND 8952 (S24E49). REGION 8951 MAY BE THE LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING REGION 8910.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 8948 AND REGIONS RETURNING TO THE NORTHEAST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY RANGED FROM SEVERE STORM TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT SEVERE LEVELS (K=8) AT THE START OF THE DAY. ACTIVITY DECREASED TO ACTIVE LEVELS BY MID DAY AND THE FIELD IS CURRENTLY AT UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE SOLAR WIND, AS OBSERVED BY THE ACE SPACECRAFT, SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE DISTURBANCE PRODUCING THIS STORM HAD PASSED THE SPACECRAFT BY 0800UT. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED STILL REMAINS ELEVATED AT 600KM/S. A MINOR FORBUSH DECREASE IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED BY THE THULE NEUTRON MONITOR.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 08 APR to 10 APR
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 APR 175
  Predicted   08 APR-10 APR  180/185/190
  90 Day Mean        07 APR 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 APR  034/056
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 APR  051/063
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 APR-10 APR  010/030-008/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 APR to 10 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm30%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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