Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 May 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8970 (S14W105), FROM BEHIND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB, PRODUCED AN M6 X-RAY EVENT AT 04/1108Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. EARLIER, AT 03/2310Z, REGION 8970 PRODUCED AN M1 X-RAY EVENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM. SOME DECAY WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8980 (S15W08), WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE SEEN IN REGION 8981 (S22W10). NEW REGION 8983 (N25E58) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS ENHANCED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 05 MAY to 07 MAY
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 MAY 135
  Predicted   05 MAY-07 MAY  130/130/135
  90 Day Mean        04 MAY 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAY  013/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAY-07 MAY  010/010-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 MAY to 07 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%40%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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