Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 April 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 20 APR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NEW REGION 8969 (N13E62)
PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE DAY, A C8/SF AT 20/1033UT. REGION
8963 (N16W18) ALSO PRODUCED C-CLASS ACTIVITY, THE LARGEST BEING A
C4/SF AT 20/1937UT. NEW REGION 8970 (S14E77) IS ROTATING AROUND THE
EAST LIMB. SO FAR A LARGE H-TYPE SPOT IS VISIBLE AND TRAILER SPOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO APPEAR BY TOMORROW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN REGION
8963. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
III. Event Probabilities 21 APR to 23 APR
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 APR 181 Predicted 21 APR-23 APR 185/190/200 90 Day Mean 20 APR 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 APR 009/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 APR 018/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 APR-23 APR 015/012-010/005-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 APR to 23 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 02% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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