Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 May 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 17 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MOST ACTIVE REGIONS WERE 8996 (S21E03), 8998 (N20E17), AND 9002 (N18E48), ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AND OPTICAL SUBFLARES. REGIONS 8996 AND 9002 CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGEST REGIONS ON THE DISK, WITH AREAS OF 1280 AND 820 MILLIONTHS, AND SPOT COUNTS OF 53 AND 29 RESPECTIVELY. A 29 DEGREE LONG, DISAPPEARING SOLAR FILAMENT (DSF) OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD 17/1808-1843UT, NEAR S22W37. FOUR NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED DURING THE PERIOD: 9005 (S18W56), 9006 (N26W88), 9007 (S42E12), AND 9008 (S13E50).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGIONS 8996, 8998, AND 9002 ARE ALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH MINOR STORMING OCCURRING DURING THE PERIOD 17/03-0900UT AT MID-LATITUDES AND 17/00-0900UT AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE MINOR STORMING AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THIS INCREASED ACTIVITY WOULD BE THE RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH A CME REPORTED ON 15 MAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON THE SECOND DAY AND QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON THE THIRD.
III. Event Probabilities 18 MAY to 20 MAY
Class M80%80%80%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 MAY 262
  Predicted   18 MAY-20 MAY  260/260/265
  90 Day Mean        17 MAY 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAY  014/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAY  021/023
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAY-20 MAY  025/030-018/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 MAY to 20 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%30%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active70%35%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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