Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 JUL 2000
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9077 (N19E31) PRODUCED
AN M5/2B EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT 10/2142Z. AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND
TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP WAS ALSO OBSERVED. AN IMPRESSIVE LARGE FILAMENT
ERUPTION/CME WAS ALSO OBSERVED AT THIS TIME FROM NEAR N45E73. THIS
REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK AND MAINTAINS
A COMPLEX DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IN OVER 1000 MILLIONTHS OF
WHITE LIGHT AREA. REGION 9077 ALSO PRODUCED AN M4 AT 11/1141Z
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN X1 AT 11/1310Z, BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG
DURATION 1B FLARE. A LARGE CENTIMETRIC BURST ALSO OCCURRED WITH
THIS FLARE INCLUDING A 1600 SFU TENFLARE. REGION 9070 (N18W31)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 11/1958Z. THIS REGION HAS DEVELOPED INTO A
MODERATELY SIZED AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION AND IS CURRENTLY
420 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT IN A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. THREE
NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGIONS 9081 (N03E69), 9082
(S12E39), AND 9083 (S18W21).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGIONS 9070 AND 9077 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
M-CLASS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR X-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM. DISTURBED
CONDITIONS CONTINUED THIS PERIOD FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S SHOCK AT
10/0558Z. A SECOND SHOCK WAS OBSERVED ON THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT
11/1125Z, ENHANCING THE EXISTING STORM. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON ENHANCEMENT FOLLOWED THIS MORNING'S X1 FLARE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING
PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GEOMAGNETIC STORMING AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS IS
EXPECTED LATE ON DAY TWO THROUGH DAY THREE IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT
CME'S. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE
10 PFU THRESHOLD ON DAY ONE OF THE FORECAST.
III. Event Probabilities 12 JUL to 14 JUL
Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
PCAF | YELLOW
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 JUL 225
Predicted 12 JUL-14 JUL 220/210/205
90 Day Mean 11 JUL 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUL 018/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUL 028/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUL-14 JUL 020/025-025/025-050/050
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 JUL to 14 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 60% | 60% | 20% |
Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 40% |
Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 40% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 50% | 50% | 20% |
Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 40% |
Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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