Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9077 (N17E16) PRODUCED
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT EVENTS FOR THE PERIOD. IT PRODUCED
AN M1/1N AT 12/0502Z WITH MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. THIS WAS
FOLLOWED BY AN X1/2B AT 12/1037Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED 390 SFU TENFLARE
AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP. REGION 9070 (N19W63) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT
12/1655Z. REGION 9077 PRODUCED ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE AT 12/1849Z,
AN M5/2F WITH AN ASSOCIATED 230 SFU TENFLARE. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP OCCURRED AT 12/2014Z. BOTH REGIONS
9070 AND 9077 MAINTAIN COMPLEX MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATIONS. AN
IMPRESSIVE CME WAS OBSERVED AROUND 12/0200Z FROM A REGION ON OR
BEHIND THE SOUTHEAST LIMB OF THE SUN.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT HIGH LEVELS. EXPECT FREQUENT C-CLASS FLARES WITH AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 9070. REGION 9077 WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MAJOR FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. MINOR
STORMING WAS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS YESTERDAY'S DISTURBANCE
SUBSIDED. MOSTLY MINOR TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS REMAIN
ENHANCED BUT HAVE NOT YET CROSSED ALERT THRESHOLD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AT QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS. MINOR TO
MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON DAY ONE AS A
RESULT OF CME'S OBSERVED ON 10-11 JULY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON DAY THREE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS FLUX ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
CROSS EVENT THRESHOLD DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 13 JUL to 15 JUL
| Class M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 JUL 230 Predicted 13 JUL-15 JUL 225/220/200 90 Day Mean 12 JUL 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUL 031/031 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUL 015/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUL-15 JUL 025/025-050/050-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 JUL to 15 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 40% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 40% | 07% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 40% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 10% |
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