Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 August 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 AUG 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL ISOLATED C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C4/1N AT
17/0837UT FROM REGION 9131 (N14E21). REGION 9125 (N26W22) REMAINS
THE LARGEST AND MOST MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX GROUP OF THE 12 SPOTTED
REGIONS VISIBLE. REGION 9125 PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 17/1241UT. OVERALL
MOST OF THE REGIONS WERE RELATIVELY STABLE AND PRODUCED VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: 9136 (N07W06).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED MODERATE LEVELS AT
APPROXIMATELY 17/0900UT AND STAYED AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 18 AUG to 20 AUG
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 AUG 177 Predicted 18 AUG-20 AUG 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 17 AUG 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 AUG 009/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 AUG 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 AUG-20 AUG 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 AUG to 20 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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