Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 September 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 13 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C2 X-RAY BURST OCCURRED AT 13/1434Z. NEW REGIONS 9164 (S15W13), AND 9165 (N12E30) WERE NUMBERED TODAY. NEW SPOTS RE-EMERGED IN REGIONS 9156 (S27W40) AND 9158 (N31W08). A NEW ACTIVE REGION IS ROTATING ON THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LOW LEVELS. OCCASIONAL LOW C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS PERSISTED SINCE 13/0600Z. THE >10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN AT 12/1555Z IS STILL IN PROGRESS. A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 321 PFU OCCURRED AT 13/0340Z. THE EVENT HAS BEEN IN SLOW DECAY SINCE THE MAXIMUM AND IS CURRENTLY AT 93 PFU. THE >100 MEV ENHANCEMENT NEVER REACHED EVENT THRESHOLD AND IS ALSO SLOWLY RETURNING TO BACKGROUND. THE PCA THAT BEGAN NEAR 12/1830Z REMAINS IN PROGRESS. PEAK ABSORPTION OBSERVED AT THULE, GREENLAND WAS 4.6DB AT 13/0603Z. CURRENT ABSORPTION IS APPROXIMATELY 3DB.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH EARLY DAY ONE. STORMING IN RESPONSE TO THE CME OBSERVED ON 12 SEP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF DAY ONE AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAY TWO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO UNSETTLED BY DAY THREE. THE >10 MEV PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED TO END ON DAY ONE.
III. Event Probabilities 14 SEP to 16 SEP
Class M10%10%15%
Class X01%01%05%
Proton99%30%05%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 SEP 133
  Predicted   14 SEP-16 SEP  130/135/135
  90 Day Mean        13 SEP 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 SEP  011/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 SEP  010/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 SEP-16 SEP  040/045-040/040-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 SEP to 16 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%35%
Minor storm40%40%15%
Major-severe storm40%40%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%40%
Minor storm45%45%20%
Major-severe storm45%45%05%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/11/06X2.39
Last M-flare2024/11/11M1.3
Last geomagnetic storm2024/11/10Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
October 2024166.4 +25
November 2024175.7 +9.3
Last 30 days166.1 +21.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12002M4.27
22012M2.91
31999M2.46
42001M2.39
51999M1.61
DstG
11981-124G3
21960-95G4
31978-93G2
42004-92G1
51983-82G2
*since 1994

Social networks