Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 September 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 12 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. A CLASSIC HYDER FLARE WAS OBSERVED NEAR S17W09 BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 12/1130 - 1330Z. THE M1/2N LONG DURATION, TWO RIBBON FLARE BEGAN FOLLOWING THE ERUPTION OF A 23 DEGREE FILAMENT THAT EXTENDED FROM S12W18 TO S28E01. A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (SHOCK SPEED NEAR 1000 KM/S) AND MINOR, GRADUAL RISE-FALL CENTIMETRIC BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT. A FULL HALO CME WAS ALSO OBSERVED ON LASCO IMAGERY BEGINNING AT 12/1331Z. THIS SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRED ON AN OTHERWISE REMARKABLY DORMANT SUN. NEW REGIONS 9162 (S32W36) AND 9163 (S19W10) WERE NUMBERED TODAY, AND JOIN REGION 9161 (N05E38) AS THE ONLY SUNSPOT GROUPS ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. VERY ISOLATED LOW C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES BETWEEN 12/09 - 15Z. POSSIBLE TRANSIENT EFFECTS INITIALLY INDUCED THIS DISTURBANCE, BUT WE TRANSITIONED INTO A HIGH SPEED STREAM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE M1/2N FLARE THAT OCCURRED AT 12/1213Z PRODUCED A PROTON EVENT AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV WHICH REMAINS IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. THE >10 MEV - 10 PFU THRESHOLD WAS CROSSED AT 12/1555Z AND REACHED 100 PFU AT ISSUE TIME. A >100 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO IN PROGRESS, BUT HAS YET TO REACH EVENT THRESHOLD. A PCA BEGAN NEAR 12/1830Z AND IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS. CURRENT (12/2100Z) PCA ABSORPTION AT THULE, GREENLAND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 2.5 DB.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE THROUGH DAY ONE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. EFFECTS FROM TODAY'S M1/2N FLARE AND HALO CME ARE EXPECTED BY DAY TWO - EXPECT MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING TO DEVELOP ON DAY TWO AND LAST THROUGH DAY THREE BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LATE ON DAY THREE. THE >10 MEV PROTON EVENT CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MOST OF DAY ONE BEFORE SLOWLY RETURNING TO BACKGROUND LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 13 SEP to 15 SEP
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton99%20%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 SEP 133
  Predicted   13 SEP-15 SEP  125/125/130
  90 Day Mean        12 SEP 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 SEP  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 SEP  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 SEP-15 SEP  012/012-040/045-040/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 SEP to 15 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%40%
Minor storm25%50%40%
Major-severe storm10%30%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%10%15%
Minor storm30%50%45%
Major-severe storm20%40%35%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/11/06X2.39
Last M-flare2024/11/11M1.3
Last geomagnetic storm2024/11/10Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
October 2024166.4 +25
November 2024175.7 +9.3
Last 30 days166.1 +21.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12002M4.27
22012M2.91
31999M2.46
42001M2.39
51999M1.61
DstG
11981-124G3
21960-95G4
31978-93G2
42004-92G1
51983-82G2
*since 1994

Social networks