Viewing archive of Monday, 11 September 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 11 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9154 (S17W91) WAS THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. THE LARGEST WAS A C4/SF AT 11/0715Z. REGION 9158 (N29E19), UNIMPRESSIVE NOW IN WHITE LIGHT WITH NO SPOTS VISIBLE, PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE AT 11/1810Z. SEVERAL SEGMENTS OF A LARGE FILAMENT IN THE NW QUADRANT HAVE DISAPPEARED, BUT THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A CME, ON GROUND OR SPACE-BASED IMAGERY. NEW REGION 9161 (N06E04) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. REGION 9154 STILL MAINTAINS BEST POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE WEST LIMB. WITH REGION 9154'S DEPARTURE, SOLAR ACTIVITY MAY REACH VERY LOW LEVELS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS ON DAY ONE. EFFECTS FROM THE 09 AUG, M1/1N FLARE ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY ONE.
III. Event Probabilities 12 SEP to 14 SEP
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 SEP 135
  Predicted   12 SEP-14 SEP  130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        11 SEP 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 SEP  002/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 SEP  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 SEP-14 SEP  012/012-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 SEP to 14 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%25%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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