Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 September 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 SEP 2000
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A C9/1N EVENT FROM REGION 9167 (N14W69). NUMEROUS MINOR C-CLASS
FLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS, SUCH AS 9169
(N12W47), 9173 (S13E38) AND NEW REGION 9176 (S10E68). SEVERAL OF
THE MINOR C-CLASS WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. REGION 9169 SHOWED
NO FURTHER DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY. THE REGION NOW HAS A BETA GAMMA
MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 9170 (S06W51) SHOWED SLIGHT GROWTH
DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO NOW HAS A BETA GAMMA CONFIGURATION. NEW
REGIONS 9176, AND 9177 (N28E01) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. CONTINUED MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. REGIONS
9169 AND 9170 ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENT. HOWEVER, NEW REGION 9176 NEAR THE EAST LIMB MAY ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE AFFECTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED, NEAR 600 KM/S YESTERDAY, IS
SLOWLY DECREASING AND IS CURRENTLY AVERAGING 500 - 550 KM/S. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH
LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS POSSIBLE ON THE FIRST DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 28 SEP to 30 SEP
Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 SEP 205
Predicted 28 SEP-30 SEP 205/200/195
90 Day Mean 27 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 SEP 017/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP 012/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP 012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 SEP to 30 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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