Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 September 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD WAS A C-8 X-RAY BURST AT 26/2000Z. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED IN ANY NUMBERED REGIONS BUT SURGING NOTED ON THE SE LIMB BECAME PARTICULARLY BRIGHT AND ENHANCED DURING THIS X-RAY EVENT. LARGE REGION 9169 (N12W34) CONTINUES TO DECAY AND APPEARS TO NO LONGER CONTAIN A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. ONLY LOW C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM THIS REGION. REGION 9173 (S13E51) UNDERWENT SOME GROWTH AND PRODUCED A C4/SF FLARE AT 26/1231Z. NEW REGIONS 9174 (S30W60) AND 9175 (N21E67) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 9169, THOUGH DECAYING, IS STILL CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM. SOLAR WIND SPEED WAS AVERAGING NEAR 600 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING POSSIBLE ON DAYS ONE AND TWO. A CME ASSOCIATED WITH THE M-1 FLARE ON 25/0215Z MAY ENHANCE THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE THROUGH DAY TWO. MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 27 SEP to 29 SEP
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 SEP 224
  Predicted   27 SEP-29 SEP  210/200/190
  90 Day Mean        26 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 SEP  013/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 SEP  020/021
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 SEP-29 SEP  020/020-012/010-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 SEP to 29 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm20%20%40%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
VII. COMMENTS EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML

All times in UTC

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