Viewing archive of Monday, 23 October 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-class subflares occurred, mainly in Regions 9199 (N08W49) and 9201 (N17W08). New regions numbered include 9206 (N20E50), 9207 (S20E65), and 9208 (S13E77).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with C-class activity in Regions 9199 and 9201. A small M-flare in one of these regions is possible but is becoming less likely.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels in response to a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
Class M20%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Oct 167
  Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct  170/170/175
  90 Day Mean        23 Oct 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  007/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  015/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  010/012-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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