Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity was low, with only minor C-class events
observed during the past 24 hours. The largest flare, a C4/Sf at
13/0823Z, originated from Region 9267, a growing region (currently a
23-spot DAI Beta) that generated yesterday's M1/1F event. Three new
regions were numbered today: 9268 (S17E74), 9269 (N14E63) and 9270
(S11E10).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with the continued probability for isolated M-class events,
primarily from Region 9267.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with a single period of
unsettled conditions recorded at Boulder during the interval
13/0000-0300Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous altitudes continue to fluctuate between low and
moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 165 Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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