Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low, with only minor C-class events
observed within the past 24 hours. Of the ten spotted regions
currently on the visible disk, Regions 9264 (S24E16) and 9267
(N07W02) have been the originators for most recent flare activity,
the largest being a C6/Sf from Region 9267 at 14/1523Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with the possibility for an isolated minor M-class event, for the
next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes for the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV flux continued it's recent daily
fluctuation between low and moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet, with isolated periods of unsettled
conditions, for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 182 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 185/185/190 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 003/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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