Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to a single, impulsive
M3/1N event with an accompanying 210 SFU tenflare, from Region 9302
(N19E06) at 10/1016 UTC. The other major activity of note was a long
duration C5/1N event at 10/0103 UTC. This event also produced a
partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) and a Type II radio sweep
with an approximate speed of 1200 km/s. Only occasional C-class
events occurred during the rest of the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at mostly low levels with possible isolated M-class events possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with unsettled conditions
occurring during the period of 10/1500-1800 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first day of the period and then
unsettled for the remainder of the period. The predicted unsettled
conditions will most likely be the result of the arrival of the CME
described in section IA.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 163 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 165/170/175 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/005-010/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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