Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 9354 (S08E20) grew
in area and spot count since yesterday. Overall the disk and limbs
were mostly quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit were at moderate levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A possible shock from a full-halo
CME on the 15th may produce unsettled conditions on the first two
days of the period. Conditions should be at quiet levels for the
third day.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 130 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 010/010-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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