Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 May 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class event, an M1/1f flare from Region 9455 (S16W66) at 17/1652. Regions 9451 (S20W90+), 9454 (N14W22), and 9455 all produced C-class events during the period. Region 9455 produced a C9/1f at the end of the reporting period. Region 9461 (N18E49), returning Region 9433 (responsible for major flares during its previous two rotations), continued to show little activity and is currently a 4-spot D-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9454 and 9455 could produce isolated M-class events during the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a possibility of isolated active periods at high latitudes on 18 May. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may reach high levels during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 May 147
  Predicted   18 May-20 May  150/155/160
  90 Day Mean        17 May 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  007/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 May  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  012/020-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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