Viewing archive of Friday, 18 May 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9461 (N19E39) was the most active region during the period, producing a C4/Sf event at 17/2142 UTC. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated C6 flare at 18/0640 UTC. Regions 9454 (N14W33) and 9455 (S17W80) began to show signs of decay and decreased activity today. One new region was numbered overnight, 9462 (N16E65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. Region 9461 could possibly produce isolated M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be a quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may reach moderate to high levels during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 May 138
  Predicted   19 May-21 May  140/135/130
  90 Day Mean        18 May 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 May  010/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  010/010-008/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active01%01%01%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm00%00%00%

All times in UTC

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