Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 June 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours. Region 9489 (N20W69) produced today's largest event, a C6/Sf at 0943 UTC. This event was time-associated with a partial halo coronal mass ejection. There are currently 17 numbered sunspot regions on the disk, and there was an overall growth trend during the day. Growth was particularly noteworthy in regions 9489 (N20W69), 9495 (N06W46), and 9502 (S26E45). Newly assigned regions 9505 (N22E73 - Carrington 126) and 9506 (N17E79 - Carrington 120) rotated into view today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate during the next three days. Regions 9489 and 9502 are considered to be the most likely sources for energetic events. There is a slight chance for a major flare or proton producing event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days. An increase to unsettled to slightly active is possible on the third day in response to a possible glancing blow from today's CME event.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
Class M65%65%65%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jun 195
  Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  195/195/200
  90 Day Mean        14 Jun 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  010/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jun  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  005/010-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm10%15%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%15%

All times in UTC

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