Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 May 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. All disk regions have been relatively inactive. Region 9463 (N08W51), the largest sunspot group presently on the disk, and Region 9468 (N06W16) have decayed since yesterday. New Regions 9476 (S22W68), 9477 (S16E20), and 9478 (N14E15) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. An SI was observed at the Boulder ground magnetometer at 27/1456 UTC following a shock observed in the solar wind at ACE at 27/1418 UTC. Timing of the structure seems consistent with the M1/1N/Type II event which occurred on 24 May.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with an occasional active period during the passage of the CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 May 147
  Predicted   28 May-30 May  140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        27 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 May  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  010/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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