Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 July 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was moderate with a single M1/1b flare
from Region 9537 (S08W66) at 19/1004 UTC. Outside of the M1, the
only other significant event was a C5/Sf from Region 9546 (S17E19)
at 18/2141 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
primarily low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled except for one active
period at high latitudes. The solar wind continued to exhibit
characteristics of a high speed stream. The flux of greater than
two MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled. Isolated active
periods are possible due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole.
The flux of greater than two MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit
is forecast to reach high levels through the period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 142 Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 010/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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