Viewing archive of Friday, 20 July 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9546 (S16E04) produced
today's only C-class event, a C1/Sf at 19/2345 UTC. Region 9542
(S22E08) showed some growth today, and is currently the largest
region on the disk, but was stable. Region 9548 (N17E25) also showed
some emerging flux, but could only muster one Sf flare. Two
filaments disappeared during the past 24 hours, one in the northeast
near N13E15, and the other in the northwest near N36W16.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event
sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 143 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 010/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 010/011-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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